Tensung vs Paro: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Tensungvs
ParoThe model puts Paro at 88%. The model leans toward Paro. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Paro.
- −The head-to-head record favours Tensung (6-0-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Tensung have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Paro have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tensung have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Paro is priced at 1.04.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 12 | 17 | 16 | 11 | 6 |
| 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | ||||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Tensung at 7%. The model puts the draw at 6%. The model puts Paro at 88%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-2.
The market leans toward Paro. Tensung is priced at 29. The draw is priced at 15. Paro is priced at 1.04.
Tensung have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
Tensung have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Paro have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Paro are on 3 wins in a row.
The model gives 26% for both teams to score. The model gives 61% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Tensung or Paro?
Our model rates Paro as the most likely outcome at 88% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Tensung vs Paro?
A scoreline around 0-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 6 Tensung wins, 0 draws, 0 Paro wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
Bhutan. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Thimphu City | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 25:6 | 23 |
| 2 | Paro | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 36:8 | 22 |
| 3 |  Transport United | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 13:11 | 19 |
| 4 |  RTC | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11:11 | 14 |
| 5 |  Drukpa | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18:14 | 13 |
| 6 |  Thimphu | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 10:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  BFF Academy (Youth) | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 8 |  Tsirang | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 16:18 | 11 |
| 9 | Tensung | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 3:19 | 5 |
| 10 |  Ugyen Academy | 10 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 7:34 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.