Herediano vs Puntarenas: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Heredianovs
PuntarenasThe model puts Herediano at 63%. The model leans toward Herediano. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Herediano.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Herediano have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Puntarenas have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Herediano have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Herediano is priced at 1.47.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 15 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Herediano at 63%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Puntarenas at 13%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Herediano. Herediano is priced at 1.47. The draw is priced at 3.75. Puntarenas is priced at 6.56.
Herediano have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Puntarenas have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
Herediano have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Puntarenas have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 40% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Herediano or Puntarenas?
Our model rates Herediano as the most likely outcome at 63% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Herediano vs Puntarenas?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Herediano wins, 0 draws, 3 Puntarenas wins.
League table
Costa Rica Championship - Aperture| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alajuelense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Cartagines | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 | Herediano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 | Puntarenas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  San Carlos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Deportivo Saprissa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Municipal Perez Zeledon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Sporting San Jose | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Escorpiones | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Inter San Carlos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.