Lech Poznan vs AGF Aarhus: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Lech Poznanvs
AGF AarhusThe model puts Lech Poznan at 52%. The model leans toward Lech Poznan. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Lech Poznan.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Lech Poznan have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AGF Aarhus have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lech Poznan is priced at 1.875.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Lech Poznan at 52%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts AGF Aarhus at 23%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Lech Poznan. Lech Poznan is priced at 1.875. The draw is priced at 3.645. AGF Aarhus is priced at 3.9.
AGF Aarhus have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Lech Poznan have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. AGF Aarhus have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Lech Poznan or AGF Aarhus?
Our model rates Lech Poznan as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Lech Poznan vs AGF Aarhus?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 Lech Poznan wins, 0 draws, 1 AGF Aarhus wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.