Gazalkent vs Metallurg Bekabad: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Gazalkentvs
Metallurg BekabadThe model puts Metallurg Bekabad at 53%. The model leans toward Metallurg Bekabad. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Gazalkent have 2 wins in their last 3 matches.
- Metallurg Bekabad is priced at 1.686.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | |||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Gazalkent at 22%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Metallurg Bekabad at 53%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Metallurg Bekabad. Gazalkent is priced at 4.275. The draw is priced at 3.65. Metallurg Bekabad is priced at 1.686.
Gazalkent have 2 wins in their last 3 matches.
The model gives 39% for both teams to score. The model gives 35% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Gazalkent or Metallurg Bekabad?
Our model rates Metallurg Bekabad as the most likely outcome at 53% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Gazalkent vs Metallurg Bekabad?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Uzbekistan. Pro League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Aral | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 24:7 | 26 |
| 2 |  Shurtan Guzar | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 15:8 | 23 |
| 3 |  Lochin | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19:7 | 21 |
| 4 | Metallurg Bekabad | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 23:8 | 18 |
| 5 |  Kattakurgan | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11:6 | 18 |
| 6 | Gazalkent | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14:12 | 15 |
| 7 |  Fergana State University | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13:19 | 13 |
| 8 |  Yaypan | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 13:20 | 13 |
| 9 |  Olimpik MobiUZ | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18:13 | 12 |
| 10 |  Respublika FA | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12:10 | 12 |
| 11 |  Jayxun | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 12 |  Buxdu | 10 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 7:21 | 7 |
| 13 |  Pakhtakor Tashkent II | 10 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 6:23 | 4 |
| 14 |  Terdu | 10 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 8:20 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.