Scotland. League Cup

St. Mirren vs Dunfermline Athletic: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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St. Mirrenvs

Dunfermline Athletic

Our predictionSt. Mirren to win

Model score: Low · 26/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts St. Mirren at 46%. The model leans toward St. Mirren. Confidence: low.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−Recent form favours Dunfermline Athletic.
−The head-to-head record favours Dunfermline Athletic (1-0-5).

Win probabilities

1 · St. Mirren46%Draw23%2 · Dunfermline Athletic31%

1 · St. MirrenDraw2 · Dunfermline Athletic

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo2.62+13.5%

1X2Dunfermline Athletic3.44+4.1%

1X2Draw3.65-1.7%

1X2St. Mirren1.87-2.4%

BTTSYes1.42-13.5%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

St. MirrenLLLWW

Dunfermline AthleticLWWWL

Team strength rating

St. Mirren

Dunfermline Athletic

Most likely scorelines

1-112.0%

1-011.5%

2-19.4%

2-09.1%

0-17.6%

0-07.3%

Expected goals

1.58St. Mirren

1.04Dunfermline Athletic

Over 2.5 goals49%

Both teams to score51%

Match DNA

St. Mirren Dunfermline Athletic

Key points

St. Mirren have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Dunfermline Athletic have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
St. Mirren have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
St. Mirren is priced at 1.87.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2St. Mirren win1.87Fair (-2.4%)

Double chanceSt. Mirren or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	7	8	4	1
1	11	12	6	2
2	9	9	5	2
3	5	5	3
4	2	2	1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts St. Mirren at 46%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Dunfermline Athletic at 31%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market leans toward St. Mirren. St. Mirren is priced at 1.87. The draw is priced at 3.65. Dunfermline Athletic is priced at 3.44.

St. Mirren have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Dunfermline Athletic have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.

St. Mirren have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Dunfermline Athletic have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →