Scotland. League Cup

Dumbarton vs Cove Rangers: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

← Match page: score & lineups

Dumbartonvs

Cove Rangers

Our predictionCove Rangers to win

Model score: Medium · 44/100

Score hint: 0-1

The model puts Cove Rangers at 46%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+The head-to-head record favours Cove Rangers (0-2-4).

Win probabilities

1 · Dumbarton31%Draw23%2 · Cove Rangers46%

1 · DumbartonDraw2 · Cove Rangers

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo2.62+12.8%

1X2Cove Rangers2.03+1.1%

1X2Dumbarton2.88-0.3%

1X2Draw3.85-0.8%

BTTSYes1.42-12.8%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

DumbartonLLLLL

Cove RangersLLWLL

Team strength rating

Dumbarton

Cove Rangers

Most likely scorelines

1-112.5%

0-110.7%

1-28.8%

1-08.8%

0-27.6%

0-07.6%

Expected goals

1.17Dumbarton

1.42Cove Rangers

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score52%

Match DNA

Dumbarton Cove Rangers

Key points

Dumbarton have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Cove Rangers have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Cove Rangers is priced at 2.03.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Cove Rangers win2.03Fair (+1.1%)

Double chanceCove Rangers or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8	11	8	4	1
1	9	12	9	4	1
2	5	7	5	2
3	2	3	2
4
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Dumbarton at 31%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Cove Rangers at 46%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.

The market leans toward Cove Rangers. Dumbarton is priced at 2.88. The draw is priced at 3.85. Cove Rangers is priced at 2.03.

Cove Rangers have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.

Dumbarton have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Cove Rangers have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →