Scotland. League Cup

Arbroath vs Stirling Albion: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Arbroathvs

Stirling Albion

Our predictionArbroath to win

Model score: High · 89/100

Score hint: 2-0

The model puts Arbroath at 68%. The model leans toward Arbroath. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Recent form favours Arbroath.
−The head-to-head record favours Stirling Albion (0-3-3).

Win probabilities

1 · Arbroath68%Draw18%2 · Stirling Albion14%

1 · ArbroathDraw2 · Stirling Albion

Full team comparison →

Recent form

ArbroathWWWLD

Stirling AlbionWLWWL

Team strength rating

Arbroath

Stirling Albion

Most likely scorelines

2-015.4%

1-014.6%

3-010.8%

2-18.7%

1-18.2%

0-06.9%

Expected goals

2.11Arbroath

0.56Stirling Albion

Over 2.5 goals50%

Both teams to score38%

Match DNA

Arbroath Stirling Albion

Key points

Arbroath have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Stirling Albion have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Arbroath is priced at 1.32.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Arbroath win1.32Fair (-0.6%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2
0	7	4	1
1	15	8	2
2	15	9	2
3	11	6	2
4	6	3
5	2	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2Stirling Albion7.48+1.8%

1X2Arbroath1.32-0.6%

1X2Draw4.80-1.2%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Full analysis

The model puts Arbroath at 68%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Stirling Albion at 14%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.

The market leans toward Arbroath. Arbroath is priced at 1.32. The draw is priced at 4.8. Stirling Albion is priced at 7.48.

Stirling Albion have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.

Arbroath have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Arbroath are on 3 wins in a row. Stirling Albion have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 38% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →