Hamilton Academical vs Elgin City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Hamilton Academicalvs
Elgin CityThe model puts Hamilton Academical at 75%. The model leans toward Hamilton Academical. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Hamilton Academical.
- +The head-to-head record favours Hamilton Academical (6-0-0).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Hamilton Academical have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Elgin City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Hamilton Academical have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Hamilton Academical is priced at 1.25.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 15 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 18 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 13 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 8 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Hamilton Academical at 75%. The model puts the draw at 17%. The model puts Elgin City at 8%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Hamilton Academical. Hamilton Academical is priced at 1.25. The draw is priced at 4.95. Elgin City is priced at 10.2.
Hamilton Academical have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
Hamilton Academical have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Elgin City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 31% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Hamilton Academical or Elgin City?
Our model rates Hamilton Academical as the most likely outcome at 75% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Hamilton Academical vs Elgin City?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 6 Hamilton Academical wins, 0 draws, 0 Elgin City wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.