CR Vasco da Gama vs Independiente Medellin: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
CR Vasco da Gamavs
Independiente MedellinThe model puts CR Vasco da Gama at 57%. The model leans toward CR Vasco da Gama. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Independiente Medellin.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- CR Vasco da Gama have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Independiente Medellin have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- CR Vasco da Gama is priced at 1.63.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts CR Vasco da Gama at 57%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Independiente Medellin at 20%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward CR Vasco da Gama. CR Vasco da Gama is priced at 1.63. The draw is priced at 3.94. Independiente Medellin is priced at 5.35.
The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
CR Vasco da Gama have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Independiente Medellin have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, CR Vasco da Gama or Independiente Medellin?
Our model rates CR Vasco da Gama as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for CR Vasco da Gama vs Independiente Medellin?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 CR Vasco da Gama wins, 1 draws, 0 Independiente Medellin wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.