Coritiba vs Cruzeiro Esporte Clube: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Coritibavs
Cruzeiro Esporte ClubeThe model puts Cruzeiro Esporte Clube at 44%. The model leans toward Cruzeiro Esporte Clube. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Coritiba.
- +The head-to-head record favours Cruzeiro Esporte Clube (1-2-3).
- +Cruzeiro Esporte Clube creates more chances (11 vs 13 shots per game).
- +Cruzeiro Esporte Clube controls more of the ball (39% vs 54%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Coritiba have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cruzeiro Esporte Clube have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Coritiba have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Cruzeiro Esporte Clube is priced at 2.216.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 14 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Coritiba at 29%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Cruzeiro Esporte Clube at 44%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Cruzeiro Esporte Clube. Coritiba is priced at 3.36. The draw is priced at 3.28. Cruzeiro Esporte Clube is priced at 2.216.
Coritiba have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Cruzeiro Esporte Clube have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Coritiba have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Coritiba are on 2 wins in a row. Cruzeiro Esporte Clube have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Coritiba average 1 goals per game this season. Coritiba average 39% possession. Cruzeiro Esporte Clube average 1 goals per game this season. Cruzeiro Esporte Clube average 54% possession.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 36% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Coritiba or Cruzeiro Esporte Clube?
Our model rates Cruzeiro Esporte Clube as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Cruzeiro Esporte Clube?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Coritiba wins, 2 draws, 3 Cruzeiro Esporte Clube wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | 20 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 34:16 | 44 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 36:17 | 38 |
| 3 |  Clube Atletico Paranaense | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 28:19 | 36 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 30:25 | 33 |
| 5 |  Red Bull Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 26:20 | 31 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 29:25 | 31 |
| 7 |  Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 34:32 | 29 |
| 8 |  Clube Atletico Mineiro | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 25:25 | 28 |
| 9 |  Corinthians Paulista | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 22:20 | 28 |
| 10 | Coritiba | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 25:27 | 27 |
| 11 | Cruzeiro Esporte Clube | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 26:30 | 27 |
| 12 |  Sao Paulo | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 25:23 | 26 |
| 13 |  EC Vitoria Salvador | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 22:27 | 26 |
| 14 |  Santos | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 29:33 | 22 |
| 15 |  Gremio Porto Alegrense | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 22:26 | 22 |
| 16 |  Sport Club Internacional | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 22:26 | 21 |
| 17 |  CR Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 23:31 | 21 |
| 18 |  Clube do Remo | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 23:32 | 21 |
| 19 |  Mirassol | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 21:26 | 20 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 20 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 19:41 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.