Fluminense vs Bahia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Fluminensevs
BahiaThe model puts Fluminense at 57%. The model leans toward Fluminense. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Fluminense score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +Fluminense creates more chances (17 vs 13 shots per game).
- +The head-to-head record favours Fluminense (3-2-1).
- +Fluminense controls more of the ball (60% vs 51%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Fluminense have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bahia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fluminense have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Fluminense is priced at 1.8.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Fluminense at 57%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Bahia at 19%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Fluminense. Fluminense is priced at 1.8. The draw is priced at 3.64. Bahia is priced at 4.46.
Fluminense have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Bahia have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Fluminense have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Bahia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Fluminense average 2 goals per game this season. Fluminense average 60% possession. Bahia average 1 goals per game this season. Bahia average 51% possession.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 57% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Fluminense or Bahia?
Our model rates Fluminense as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Bahia?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Fluminense wins, 2 draws, 1 Bahia wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | 20 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 34:16 | 44 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 36:17 | 38 |
| 3 |  Clube Atletico Paranaense | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 28:19 | 36 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 30:25 | 33 |
| 5 |  Red Bull Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 26:20 | 31 |
| 6 | Bahia | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 29:25 | 31 |
| 7 |  Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 34:32 | 29 |
| 8 |  Clube Atletico Mineiro | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 25:25 | 28 |
| 9 |  Corinthians Paulista | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 22:20 | 28 |
| 10 |  Coritiba | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 25:27 | 27 |
| 11 |  Cruzeiro Esporte Clube | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 26:30 | 27 |
| 12 |  Sao Paulo | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 25:23 | 26 |
| 13 |  EC Vitoria Salvador | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 22:27 | 26 |
| 14 |  Santos | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 29:33 | 22 |
| 15 |  Gremio Porto Alegrense | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 22:26 | 22 |
| 16 |  Sport Club Internacional | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 22:26 | 21 |
| 17 |  CR Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 23:31 | 21 |
| 18 |  Clube do Remo | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 23:32 | 21 |
| 19 |  Mirassol | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 21:26 | 20 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 20 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 19:41 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.