EC Vitoria Salvador vs Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
EC Vitoria Salvadorvs
Sociedade Esportiva PalmeirasThe model puts Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras at 45%. The model leans toward Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours EC Vitoria Salvador.
- −The head-to-head record favours EC Vitoria Salvador (3-2-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- EC Vitoria Salvador have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- EC Vitoria Salvador have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras is priced at 1.975.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts EC Vitoria Salvador at 28%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras at 45%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras. EC Vitoria Salvador is priced at 4.16. The draw is priced at 3.24. Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras is priced at 1.975.
EC Vitoria Salvador have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
EC Vitoria Salvador have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. EC Vitoria Salvador are on 2 wins in a row. Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
EC Vitoria Salvador average 2 goals per game this season. EC Vitoria Salvador average 46% possession. Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras average 2 goals per game this season. Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras average 48% possession.
The model gives 69% for both teams to score. The model gives 70% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, EC Vitoria Salvador or Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras?
Our model rates Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for EC Vitoria Salvador vs Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 EC Vitoria Salvador wins, 2 draws, 1 Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | 20 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 34:16 | 44 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 36:17 | 38 |
| 3 |  Clube Atletico Paranaense | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 28:19 | 36 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 30:25 | 33 |
| 5 |  Red Bull Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 26:20 | 31 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 29:25 | 31 |
| 7 |  Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 34:32 | 29 |
| 8 |  Clube Atletico Mineiro | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 25:25 | 28 |
| 9 |  Corinthians Paulista | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 22:20 | 28 |
| 10 |  Coritiba | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 25:27 | 27 |
| 11 |  Cruzeiro Esporte Clube | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 26:30 | 27 |
| 12 |  Sao Paulo | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 25:23 | 26 |
| 13 | EC Vitoria Salvador | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 22:27 | 26 |
| 14 |  Santos | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 29:33 | 22 |
| 15 |  Gremio Porto Alegrense | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 22:26 | 22 |
| 16 |  Sport Club Internacional | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 22:26 | 21 |
| 17 |  CR Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 23:31 | 21 |
| 18 |  Clube do Remo | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 23:32 | 21 |
| 19 |  Mirassol | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 21:26 | 20 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 20 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 19:41 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.