Corinthians Paulista vs Clube Atletico Paranaense: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Corinthians Paulistavs
Clube Atletico ParanaenseThe model puts Corinthians Paulista at 47%. The model leans toward Corinthians Paulista. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Clube Atletico Paranaense.
- −The head-to-head record favours Clube Atletico Paranaense (0-1-5).
- +Corinthians Paulista controls more of the ball (55% vs 45%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Corinthians Paulista have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Clube Atletico Paranaense have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Corinthians Paulista is priced at 1.94.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 9 | 4 | |||
| 1 | 16 | 13 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Corinthians Paulista at 47%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Clube Atletico Paranaense at 26%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Corinthians Paulista. Corinthians Paulista is priced at 1.94. The draw is priced at 3.22. Clube Atletico Paranaense is priced at 4.36.
Clube Atletico Paranaense have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Corinthians Paulista have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Clube Atletico Paranaense have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Corinthians Paulista average 1 goals per game this season. Corinthians Paulista average 55% possession. Clube Atletico Paranaense average 1 goals per game this season. Clube Atletico Paranaense average 45% possession.
The model gives 41% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Corinthians Paulista or Clube Atletico Paranaense?
Our model rates Corinthians Paulista as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Corinthians Paulista vs Clube Atletico Paranaense?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 0 Corinthians Paulista wins, 1 draws, 5 Clube Atletico Paranaense wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | 20 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 34:16 | 44 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 36:17 | 38 |
| 3 | Clube Atletico Paranaense | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 28:19 | 36 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 30:25 | 33 |
| 5 |  Red Bull Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 26:20 | 31 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 29:25 | 31 |
| 7 |  Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 34:32 | 29 |
| 8 |  Clube Atletico Mineiro | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 25:25 | 28 |
| 9 | Corinthians Paulista | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 22:20 | 28 |
| 10 |  Coritiba | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 25:27 | 27 |
| 11 |  Cruzeiro Esporte Clube | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 26:30 | 27 |
| 12 |  Sao Paulo | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 25:23 | 26 |
| 13 |  EC Vitoria Salvador | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 22:27 | 26 |
| 14 |  Santos | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 29:33 | 22 |
| 15 |  Gremio Porto Alegrense | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 22:26 | 22 |
| 16 |  Sport Club Internacional | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 22:26 | 21 |
| 17 |  CR Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 23:31 | 21 |
| 18 |  Clube do Remo | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 23:32 | 21 |
| 19 |  Mirassol | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 21:26 | 20 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 20 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 19:41 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.