Caracas vs Club Independiente Santa Fe: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Caracasvs
Club Independiente Santa FeThe model puts Club Independiente Santa Fe at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Club Independiente Santa Fe.
- −The head-to-head record favours Caracas (2-1-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Caracas have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Club Independiente Santa Fe have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Caracas have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Club Independiente Santa Fe is priced at 2.38.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Caracas at 32%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Club Independiente Santa Fe at 42%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Caracas is priced at 3.02. The draw is priced at 3.32. Club Independiente Santa Fe is priced at 2.38.
Caracas have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Caracas have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Club Independiente Santa Fe have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Caracas or Club Independiente Santa Fe?
Our model rates Club Independiente Santa Fe as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Caracas vs Club Independiente Santa Fe?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 2 Caracas wins, 1 draws, 0 Club Independiente Santa Fe wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.