Gremio Porto Alegrense vs Bolivar: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Gremio Porto Alegrensevs
BolivarThe model puts Gremio Porto Alegrense at 71%. The model leans toward Gremio Porto Alegrense. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Bolivar.
- +The head-to-head record favours Gremio Porto Alegrense (2-0-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Gremio Porto Alegrense have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bolivar have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Gremio Porto Alegrense have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Gremio Porto Alegrense is priced at 1.29.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | ||||
| 1 | 15 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 16 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 12 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Gremio Porto Alegrense at 71%. The model puts the draw at 16%. The model puts Bolivar at 13%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Gremio Porto Alegrense. Gremio Porto Alegrense is priced at 1.29. The draw is priced at 5.55. Bolivar is priced at 10.
Gremio Porto Alegrense have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Bolivar have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Gremio Porto Alegrense have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Bolivar have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 35% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Gremio Porto Alegrense or Bolivar?
Our model rates Gremio Porto Alegrense as the most likely outcome at 71% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Gremio Porto Alegrense vs Bolivar?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 2 Gremio Porto Alegrense wins, 0 draws, 1 Bolivar wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.