Midtjylland vs Besiktas: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Midtjyllandvs
BesiktasThe model puts Midtjylland at 45%. The model leans toward Midtjylland. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Besiktas.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Midtjylland have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Besiktas have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Midtjylland have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Midtjylland is priced at 2.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Midtjylland at 45%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Besiktas at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Midtjylland. Midtjylland is priced at 2. The draw is priced at 3.48. Besiktas is priced at 3.575.
Midtjylland have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Midtjylland have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Besiktas have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Midtjylland or Besiktas?
Our model rates Midtjylland as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Midtjylland vs Besiktas?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 Midtjylland wins, 0 draws, 0 Besiktas wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.