CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
CSKA Sofiavs
QarabagThe model puts CSKA Sofia at 37%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours CSKA Sofia (2-1-1).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- CSKA Sofia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Qarabag have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- CSKA Sofia have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- CSKA Sofia is priced at 2.64.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts CSKA Sofia at 37%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Qarabag at 35%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. CSKA Sofia is priced at 2.64. The draw is priced at 3.25. Qarabag is priced at 2.59.
CSKA Sofia have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Qarabag have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
CSKA Sofia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Qarabag have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, CSKA Sofia or Qarabag?
Our model rates CSKA Sofia as the most likely outcome at 37% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 2 CSKA Sofia wins, 1 draws, 1 Qarabag wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.