Belgrano vs Argentinos Juniors: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Belgranovs
Argentinos JuniorsThe model puts Belgrano at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Belgrano are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Argentinos Juniors are dealing with notable absentees.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Belgrano have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Argentinos Juniors have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Belgrano have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Belgrano will be without Jeremias Biani, Thiago Charras, Matias Ezequiel Daniele, Falcon, Gatti, Hernandez, Maldonado, Ricca.
- Argentinos Juniors will be without Gho, Godoy E..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Belgrano at 38%. The model puts the draw at 32%. The model puts Argentinos Juniors at 30%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Belgrano is priced at 2.516. The draw is priced at 2.954. Argentinos Juniors is priced at 3.155.
Belgrano have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Argentinos Juniors have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Belgrano have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Argentinos Juniors have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Belgrano or Argentinos Juniors?
Our model rates Belgrano as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Belgrano vs Argentinos Juniors?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Belgrano wins, 2 draws, 2 Argentinos Juniors wins.
League table
Argentina. Primera Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Defensa y Justicia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 4 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Riestra | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 3 |
| 3 |  CA Independiente Avellaneda | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Newell's Old Boys | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 5 |  Club Atletico Lanus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  Velez Sarsfield | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 7 |  Instituto Atletico Central Cordoba | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 8 |  San Lorenzo de Almagro | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 3 |
| 9 |  Club Atletico Gimnasia y Esgrima | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 3 |
| 10 |  Union de Santa Fe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 11 |  Platense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | 1 |
| 12 |  Talleres de Cordoba | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 13 |  Central Cordoba de Santiago | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 14 |  Estudiantes de La Plata | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 15 |  Boca Juniors | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.