Estudiantes de La Plata vs Defensa y Justicia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Estudiantes de La Platavs
Defensa y JusticiaThe model puts Estudiantes de La Plata at 53%. The model leans toward Estudiantes de La Plata. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Estudiantes de La Plata.
- −Estudiantes de La Plata are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Defensa y Justicia are dealing with notable absentees.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Estudiantes de La Plata have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Defensa y Justicia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Estudiantes de La Plata have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Estudiantes de La Plata will be without Molinas, Banega.
- Defensa y Justicia will be without Gonzalez Lean., Arzamendia S..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Estudiantes de La Plata at 53%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Defensa y Justicia at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Estudiantes de La Plata. Estudiantes de La Plata is priced at 1.722. The draw is priced at 3.485. Defensa y Justicia is priced at 5.4.
Estudiantes de La Plata have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Defensa y Justicia have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Estudiantes de La Plata have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Defensa y Justicia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 47% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Estudiantes de La Plata or Defensa y Justicia?
Our model rates Estudiantes de La Plata as the most likely outcome at 53% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Estudiantes de La Plata vs Defensa y Justicia?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Estudiantes de La Plata wins, 1 draws, 2 Defensa y Justicia wins.
League table
Argentina. Primera Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Defensa y Justicia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 4 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Riestra | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 3 |
| 3 |  CA Independiente Avellaneda | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Newell's Old Boys | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 5 |  Club Atletico Lanus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  Velez Sarsfield | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 7 |  Instituto Atletico Central Cordoba | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 8 |  San Lorenzo de Almagro | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 3 |
| 9 |  Club Atletico Gimnasia y Esgrima | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 3 |
| 10 |  Union de Santa Fe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 11 |  Platense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | 1 |
| 12 |  Talleres de Cordoba | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 13 |  Central Cordoba de Santiago | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 14 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 15 |  Boca Juniors | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.