Benfica vs St. Gallen: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Benficavs
St. GallenThe model puts Benfica at 75%. The model leans toward Benfica. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours St. Gallen.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Benfica have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- St. Gallen have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Benfica have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Benfica is priced at 1.198.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 15 | 7 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 17 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 13 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Benfica at 75%. The model puts the draw at 14%. The model puts St. Gallen at 10%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Benfica. Benfica is priced at 1.198. The draw is priced at 6.3. St. Gallen is priced at 13.5.
Benfica have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Benfica have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. St. Gallen have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 31% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Benfica or St. Gallen?
Our model rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 75% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Benfica vs St. Gallen?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 Benfica wins, 0 draws, 0 St. Gallen wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.