Turun Palloseura vs Mariehamn: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Turun Palloseuravs
MariehamnThe model puts Turun Palloseura at 63%. The model leans toward Turun Palloseura. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Turun Palloseura.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Turun Palloseura have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Mariehamn have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Turun Palloseura have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Turun Palloseura is priced at 1.51.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Turun Palloseura at 63%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Mariehamn at 16%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Turun Palloseura. Turun Palloseura is priced at 1.51. The draw is priced at 4.33. Mariehamn is priced at 5.71.
Turun Palloseura have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Mariehamn have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Turun Palloseura have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Mariehamn have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 41% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Turun Palloseura or Mariehamn?
Our model rates Turun Palloseura as the most likely outcome at 63% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Turun Palloseura vs Mariehamn?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Turun Palloseura wins, 3 draws, 1 Mariehamn wins.
League table
Finland. Veikkausliiga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kuopion Palloseura | 17 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 32:16 | 36 |
| 2 |  Inter Turku | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 24:14 | 31 |
| 3 |  HJK | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 28:20 | 28 |
| 4 |  Gnistan | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 27:21 | 28 |
| 5 |  Vaasan Palloseura | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 24:16 | 27 |
| 6 |  AC Oulu | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 21:21 | 27 |
| 7 |  Lahti | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 20:16 | 22 |
| 8 | Turun Palloseura | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 20:20 | 22 |
| 9 |  Ilves | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 29:30 | 22 |
| 10 |  FF Jaro | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 17:33 | 15 |
| 11 |  Seinajoen Jalkapallokerho | 17 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 19:27 | 14 |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 17 | 0 | 12 | 5 | 9:36 | 5 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.