Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Fredrikstadvs
SandefjordThe model puts Fredrikstad at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Fredrikstad.
- −Fredrikstad are dealing with notable absentees.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Fredrikstad have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sandefjord have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fredrikstad have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Fredrikstad will be without Holm S., Sorlokk, Kvile S..
- Sandefjord will be without Bjune.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Fredrikstad at 42%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Sandefjord at 30%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Fredrikstad is priced at 2.344. The draw is priced at 3.3. Sandefjord is priced at 3.096.
Fredrikstad have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Sandefjord have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Fredrikstad have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Sandefjord have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Fredrikstad or Sandefjord?
Our model rates Fredrikstad as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Fredrikstad wins, 3 draws, 2 Sandefjord wins.
League table
Norway. Eliteserien| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo-Glimt | 15 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 37:11 | 35 |
| 2 |  Viking | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 34:14 | 34 |
| 3 |  Tromso | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 26:15 | 31 |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 22:14 | 25 |
| 5 |  Molde | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 25:19 | 23 |
| 6 |  Sarpsborg 08 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 15:16 | 21 |
| 7 |  Valerenga | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 22:24 | 20 |
| 8 |  Brann | 15 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 30:25 | 19 |
| 9 |  Rosenborg | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 19:18 | 18 |
| 10 |  HamKam | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20:26 | 18 |
| 11 | Sandefjord | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 13:20 | 15 |
| 12 | Fredrikstad | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 15:27 | 14 |
| 13 |  Aalesunds | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 19:29 | 13 |
| 14 |  KFUM-Kameratene | 14 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 15:25 | 12 |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 14 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 12:23 | 12 |
| 16 |  IK Start | 15 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 16:34 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.