Club Atletico Gimnasia y Esgrima vs Union de Santa Fe: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Club Atletico Gimnasia y Esgrimavs
Union de Santa FeThe model puts Union de Santa Fe at 36%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Club Atletico Gimnasia y Esgrima.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Club Atletico Gimnasia y Esgrima have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Union de Santa Fe have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Club Atletico Gimnasia y Esgrima have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Union de Santa Fe is priced at 2.486.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Club Atletico Gimnasia y Esgrima at 35%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts Union de Santa Fe at 36%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Club Atletico Gimnasia y Esgrima is priced at 2.996. The draw is priced at 3.155. Union de Santa Fe is priced at 2.486.
Club Atletico Gimnasia y Esgrima have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Union de Santa Fe have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Club Atletico Gimnasia y Esgrima have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Union de Santa Fe have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Club Atletico Gimnasia y Esgrima or Union de Santa Fe?
Our model rates Union de Santa Fe as the most likely outcome at 36% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Club Atletico Gimnasia y Esgrima vs Union de Santa Fe?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 1 Club Atletico Gimnasia y Esgrima wins, 0 draws, 1 Union de Santa Fe wins.
Odds movement
League table
Argentina. Primera Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Defensa y Justicia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 4 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Riestra | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 3 |
| 3 |  CA Independiente Avellaneda | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Newell's Old Boys | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 5 |  Club Atletico Lanus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  Velez Sarsfield | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 7 |  Instituto Atletico Central Cordoba | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 8 |  San Lorenzo de Almagro | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 3 |
| 9 | Club Atletico Gimnasia y Esgrima | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 3 |
| 10 | Union de Santa Fe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 11 |  Platense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | 1 |
| 12 |  Talleres de Cordoba | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 13 |  Central Cordoba de Santiago | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 14 |  Estudiantes de La Plata | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 15 |  Boca Juniors | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.