Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Dorados de Sinaloa: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Alebrijes de Oaxacavs
Dorados de SinaloaThe model puts Alebrijes de Oaxaca at 52%. The model leans toward Alebrijes de Oaxaca. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Dorados de Sinaloa.
- +The head-to-head record favours Alebrijes de Oaxaca (4-1-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Alebrijes de Oaxaca have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Dorados de Sinaloa have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Alebrijes de Oaxaca have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Alebrijes de Oaxaca is priced at 1.74.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Alebrijes de Oaxaca at 52%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Dorados de Sinaloa at 24%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Alebrijes de Oaxaca. Alebrijes de Oaxaca is priced at 1.74. The draw is priced at 3.5. Dorados de Sinaloa is priced at 4.175.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Dorados de Sinaloa have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Dorados de Sinaloa have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Alebrijes de Oaxaca or Dorados de Sinaloa?
Our model rates Alebrijes de Oaxaca as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Dorados de Sinaloa?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 Alebrijes de Oaxaca wins, 1 draws, 1 Dorados de Sinaloa wins.
League table
Mexico. Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Venados | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Atletico Morelia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:2 | 3 |
| 3 |  Universidad de Guadalajara | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:2 | 3 |
| 4 |  Alacranes de Durango | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 5 |  Correcaminos UAT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3:3 | 1 |
| 6 |  Club Deportivo Mineros de Zacatecas | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3:3 | 1 |
| 7 |  Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 8 |  Jaiba Brava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 9 |  Tapatio | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 10 |  Piratas Veracruz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 11 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Cancun | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Tepatitlan de Morelos | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 14 |  Coyotes de Tlaxcala | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
| 15 |  Atletico La Paz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
| 16 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.