CF Montreal vs New England Revolution: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
CF Montrealvs
New England RevolutionThe model puts CF Montreal at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours New England Revolution.
- +CF Montreal creates more chances (14 vs 9 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- CF Montreal have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- New England Revolution have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- CF Montreal have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- CF Montreal is priced at 2.225.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts CF Montreal at 43%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts New England Revolution at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward CF Montreal. CF Montreal is priced at 2.225. The draw is priced at 3.54. New England Revolution is priced at 3.115.
CF Montreal have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. New England Revolution have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
CF Montreal have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. New England Revolution have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
CF Montreal average 1 goals per game this season. CF Montreal average 45% possession. New England Revolution average 1 goals per game this season. New England Revolution average 46% possession.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, CF Montreal or New England Revolution?
Our model rates CF Montreal as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for CF Montreal vs New England Revolution?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 CF Montreal wins, 1 draws, 2 New England Revolution wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 37:16 | 32 |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 34:19 | 32 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 30:18 | 30 |
| 4 |  Real Salt Lake | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 27:22 | 26 |
| 5 |  Dallas | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 32:24 | 26 |
| 6 |  Seattle Sounders | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 19:20 | 24 |
| 7 |  Houston Dynamo | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 20:24 | 23 |
| 8 |  St. Louis City | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 22:23 | 22 |
| 9 |  Minnesota United | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 19:24 | 22 |
| 10 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 23:28 | 20 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 16 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 26:24 | 19 |
| 12 |  Portland Timbers | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 29:31 | 18 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 30:28 | 17 |
| 14 |  Austin | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 22:32 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 16 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 18:40 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.