Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Philadelphia Unionvs
Atlanta UnitedThe model puts Philadelphia Union at 57%. The model leans toward Philadelphia Union. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Philadelphia Union score more per game (1.0 at home vs 0.0 away).
- +Recent form favours Philadelphia Union.
- −The head-to-head record favours Atlanta United (1-2-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Philadelphia Union have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atlanta United have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Philadelphia Union is priced at 1.71.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24 | 10 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 24 | 10 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Philadelphia Union at 57%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Atlanta United at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Philadelphia Union. Philadelphia Union is priced at 1.71. The draw is priced at 4.02. Atlanta United is priced at 4.52.
Philadelphia Union have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Atlanta United have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Philadelphia Union have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Atlanta United have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Philadelphia Union average 1 goals per game this season. Philadelphia Union average 48% possession. Atlanta United average 0 goals per game this season. Atlanta United average 50% possession.
The model gives 22% for both teams to score. The model gives 17% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Philadelphia Union or Atlanta United?
Our model rates Philadelphia Union as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Philadelphia Union wins, 2 draws, 3 Atlanta United wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 37:16 | 32 |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 34:19 | 32 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 30:18 | 30 |
| 4 |  Real Salt Lake | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 27:22 | 26 |
| 5 |  Dallas | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 32:24 | 26 |
| 6 |  Seattle Sounders | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 19:20 | 24 |
| 7 |  Houston Dynamo | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 20:24 | 23 |
| 8 |  St. Louis City | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 22:23 | 22 |
| 9 |  Minnesota United | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 19:24 | 22 |
| 10 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 23:28 | 20 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 16 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 26:24 | 19 |
| 12 |  Portland Timbers | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 29:31 | 18 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 30:28 | 17 |
| 14 |  Austin | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 22:32 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 16 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 18:40 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.