New York Red Bulls vs Orlando City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
New York Red Bullsvs
Orlando CityThe model puts New York Red Bulls at 48%. The model leans toward New York Red Bulls. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Orlando City.
- +New York Red Bulls score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- −The head-to-head record favours Orlando City (0-3-3).
- +New York Red Bulls creates more chances (13 vs 10 shots per game).
- +New York Red Bulls controls more of the ball (52% vs 44%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- New York Red Bulls have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Orlando City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- New York Red Bulls is priced at 2.016.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts New York Red Bulls at 48%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Orlando City at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward New York Red Bulls. New York Red Bulls is priced at 2.016. The draw is priced at 4.16. Orlando City is priced at 3.152.
Orlando City have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
New York Red Bulls have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Orlando City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
New York Red Bulls average 2 goals per game this season. New York Red Bulls average 52% possession. Orlando City average 1 goals per game this season. Orlando City average 44% possession.
The model gives 57% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, New York Red Bulls or Orlando City?
Our model rates New York Red Bulls as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for New York Red Bulls vs Orlando City?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 0 New York Red Bulls wins, 3 draws, 3 Orlando City wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 37:16 | 32 |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 34:19 | 32 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 30:18 | 30 |
| 4 |  Real Salt Lake | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 27:22 | 26 |
| 5 |  Dallas | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 32:24 | 26 |
| 6 |  Seattle Sounders | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 19:20 | 24 |
| 7 |  Houston Dynamo | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 20:24 | 23 |
| 8 |  St. Louis City | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 22:23 | 22 |
| 9 |  Minnesota United | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 19:24 | 22 |
| 10 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 23:28 | 20 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 16 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 26:24 | 19 |
| 12 |  Portland Timbers | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 29:31 | 18 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 30:28 | 17 |
| 14 |  Austin | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 22:32 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 16 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 18:40 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.