D.C. United vs Nashville: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
D.C. Unitedvs
NashvilleThe model puts Nashville at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Nashville.
- −D.C. United score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- −D.C. United creates more chances (14 vs 10 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head record favours D.C. United (3-2-1).
- +Nashville controls more of the ball (43% vs 51%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- D.C. United have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Nashville have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- D.C. United have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Nashville is priced at 2.33.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts D.C. United at 36%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Nashville at 40%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market frames this as a close contest. D.C. United is priced at 3.005. The draw is priced at 3.42. Nashville is priced at 2.33.
D.C. United have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Nashville have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
D.C. United have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Nashville have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
D.C. United average 2 goals per game this season. D.C. United average 43% possession. Nashville average 1 goals per game this season. Nashville average 51% possession.
The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, D.C. United or Nashville?
Our model rates Nashville as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for D.C. United vs Nashville?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 D.C. United wins, 2 draws, 1 Nashville wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 37:16 | 32 |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 34:19 | 32 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 30:18 | 30 |
| 4 |  Real Salt Lake | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 27:22 | 26 |
| 5 |  Dallas | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 32:24 | 26 |
| 6 |  Seattle Sounders | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 19:20 | 24 |
| 7 |  Houston Dynamo | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 20:24 | 23 |
| 8 |  St. Louis City | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 22:23 | 22 |
| 9 |  Minnesota United | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 19:24 | 22 |
| 10 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 23:28 | 20 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 16 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 26:24 | 19 |
| 12 |  Portland Timbers | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 29:31 | 18 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 30:28 | 17 |
| 14 |  Austin | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 22:32 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 16 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 18:40 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.