Chicago Fire vs Charlotte: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Chicago Firevs
CharlotteThe model puts Chicago Fire at 63%. The model leans toward Chicago Fire. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Charlotte.
- +Chicago Fire score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +Chicago Fire creates more chances (18 vs 9 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head record favours Charlotte (2-0-4).
- +Chicago Fire controls more of the ball (55% vs 43%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Chicago Fire have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Charlotte have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Chicago Fire is priced at 1.496.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 9 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Chicago Fire at 63%. The model puts the draw at 17%. The model puts Charlotte at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Chicago Fire. Chicago Fire is priced at 1.496. The draw is priced at 4.92. Charlotte is priced at 5.45.
Chicago Fire have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Charlotte have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
Chicago Fire have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Charlotte have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Chicago Fire average 2 goals per game this season. Chicago Fire average 55% possession. Charlotte average 1 goals per game this season. Charlotte average 43% possession.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 57% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Chicago Fire or Charlotte?
Our model rates Chicago Fire as the most likely outcome at 63% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Chicago Fire vs Charlotte?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Chicago Fire wins, 0 draws, 4 Charlotte wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 37:16 | 33 |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 34:19 | 32 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 30:18 | 30 |
| 4 |  Real Salt Lake | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 27:22 | 26 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 23:24 | 26 |
| 6 |  Dallas | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 32:24 | 26 |
| 7 |  St. Louis City | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 23:23 | 25 |
| 8 |  Seattle Sounders | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 19:20 | 24 |
| 9 |  Minnesota United | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 19:24 | 23 |
| 10 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 23:28 | 20 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 17 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 26:25 | 19 |
| 12 |  Portland Timbers | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 29:31 | 18 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 30:28 | 17 |
| 14 |  Austin | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 22:35 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 16 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 18:40 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.