Minnesota United vs San Diego: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Minnesota Unitedvs
San DiegoThe model puts Minnesota United at 48%. The model leans toward Minnesota United. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours San Diego.
- +Minnesota United creates more chances (15 vs 10 shots per game).
- −San Diego controls more of the ball (50% vs 62%).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Minnesota United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- San Diego have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Minnesota United have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Minnesota United is priced at 1.936.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 15 | 13 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Minnesota United at 48%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts San Diego at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Minnesota United. Minnesota United is priced at 1.936. The draw is priced at 3.98. San Diego is priced at 3.5.
Minnesota United have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. San Diego have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Minnesota United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. San Diego have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Minnesota United average 1 goals per game this season. Minnesota United average 50% possession. San Diego average 1 goals per game this season. San Diego average 62% possession.
The model gives 42% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Minnesota United or San Diego?
Our model rates Minnesota United as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Minnesota United vs San Diego?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 2 Minnesota United wins, 0 draws, 2 San Diego wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 37:16 | 33 |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 34:19 | 32 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 30:18 | 30 |
| 4 |  Real Salt Lake | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 27:22 | 26 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 23:24 | 26 |
| 6 |  Dallas | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 32:24 | 26 |
| 7 |  St. Louis City | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 23:23 | 25 |
| 8 |  Seattle Sounders | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 19:20 | 24 |
| 9 | Minnesota United | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 19:24 | 23 |
| 10 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 23:28 | 20 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 17 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 26:25 | 19 |
| 12 |  Portland Timbers | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 29:31 | 18 |
| 13 | San Diego | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 30:28 | 17 |
| 14 |  Austin | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 22:35 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 16 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 18:40 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.