Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Cincinnativs
San Jose EarthquakesThe model puts Cincinnati at 54%. The model leans toward Cincinnati. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Cincinnati.
- +Cincinnati score more per game (3.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- +Cincinnati creates more chances (16 vs 9 shots per game).
- +Cincinnati controls more of the ball (52% vs 44%).
- −The head-to-head record favours San Jose Earthquakes (1-0-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Cincinnati have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cincinnati have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Cincinnati is priced at 1.936.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Cincinnati at 54%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts San Jose Earthquakes at 25%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward Cincinnati. Cincinnati is priced at 1.936. The draw is priced at 4.12. San Jose Earthquakes is priced at 3.4.
Cincinnati have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. San Jose Earthquakes have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Cincinnati have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. San Jose Earthquakes have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Cincinnati average 3 goals per game this season. Cincinnati average 52% possession. San Jose Earthquakes average 2 goals per game this season. San Jose Earthquakes average 44% possession.
The model gives 73% for both teams to score. The model gives 82% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Cincinnati or San Jose Earthquakes?
Our model rates Cincinnati as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 1 Cincinnati wins, 0 draws, 2 San Jose Earthquakes wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 37:16 | 33 |
| 2 |  Los Angeles | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 34:18 | 33 |
| 3 | San Jose Earthquakes | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 35:20 | 33 |
| 4 |  Real Salt Lake | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 28:24 | 26 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 23:24 | 26 |
| 6 |  Dallas | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 32:25 | 26 |
| 7 |  St. Louis City | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 23:23 | 25 |
| 8 |  Seattle Sounders | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 19:20 | 24 |
| 9 |  Minnesota United | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 19:24 | 23 |
| 10 |  Portland Timbers | 17 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 31:32 | 21 |
| 11 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 24:29 | 21 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 31:28 | 20 |
| 13 |  Colorado Rapids | 17 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 26:25 | 19 |
| 14 |  Austin | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 22:35 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 17 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 18:44 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.