St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
St. Louis Cityvs
Real Salt LakeThe model puts St. Louis City at 48%. The model leans toward St. Louis City. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours St. Louis City.
- +St. Louis City score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- −The head-to-head record favours Real Salt Lake (0-3-3).
- +St. Louis City creates more chances (16 vs 12 shots per game).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- St. Louis City have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Real Salt Lake have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- St. Louis City is priced at 2.18.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts St. Louis City at 48%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Real Salt Lake at 30%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward St. Louis City. St. Louis City is priced at 2.18. The draw is priced at 3.78. Real Salt Lake is priced at 3.03.
Real Salt Lake have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
St. Louis City have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. St. Louis City are on 5 wins in a row. Real Salt Lake have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
St. Louis City average 2 goals per game this season. St. Louis City average 51% possession. Real Salt Lake average 1 goals per game this season. Real Salt Lake average 49% possession.
The model gives 56% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, St. Louis City or Real Salt Lake?
Our model rates St. Louis City as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 0 St. Louis City wins, 3 draws, 3 Real Salt Lake wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 37:16 | 33 |
| 2 |  Los Angeles | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 34:18 | 33 |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 35:20 | 33 |
| 4 | Real Salt Lake | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 28:24 | 26 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 23:24 | 26 |
| 6 |  Dallas | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 32:25 | 26 |
| 7 | St. Louis City | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 23:23 | 25 |
| 8 |  Seattle Sounders | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 19:20 | 24 |
| 9 |  Minnesota United | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 19:24 | 23 |
| 10 |  Portland Timbers | 17 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 31:32 | 21 |
| 11 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 24:29 | 21 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 31:28 | 20 |
| 13 |  Colorado Rapids | 17 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 26:25 | 19 |
| 14 |  Austin | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 22:35 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 17 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 18:44 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.