Portland Timbers vs Seattle Sounders: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Portland Timbersvs
Seattle SoundersThe model puts Portland Timbers at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Portland Timbers score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- −Recent form favours Portland Timbers.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Portland Timbers have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Portland Timbers have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Portland Timbers is priced at 2.425.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Portland Timbers at 40%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Seattle Sounders at 36%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Portland Timbers is priced at 2.425. The draw is priced at 3.88. Seattle Sounders is priced at 2.61.
Portland Timbers have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Seattle Sounders have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Portland Timbers have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Seattle Sounders have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Portland Timbers average 2 goals per game this season. Portland Timbers average 52% possession. Seattle Sounders average 1 goals per game this season. Seattle Sounders average 54% possession.
The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Portland Timbers or Seattle Sounders?
Our model rates Portland Timbers as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Portland Timbers vs Seattle Sounders?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Portland Timbers wins, 2 draws, 2 Seattle Sounders wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 37:16 | 33 |
| 2 |  Los Angeles | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 34:18 | 33 |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 35:20 | 33 |
| 4 |  Real Salt Lake | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 28:24 | 26 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 23:24 | 26 |
| 6 |  Dallas | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 32:25 | 26 |
| 7 |  St. Louis City | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 23:23 | 25 |
| 8 | Seattle Sounders | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 19:20 | 24 |
| 9 |  Minnesota United | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 19:24 | 23 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 17 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 31:32 | 21 |
| 11 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 24:29 | 21 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 31:28 | 20 |
| 13 |  Colorado Rapids | 17 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 26:25 | 19 |
| 14 |  Austin | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 22:35 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 17 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 18:44 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.