New England Revolution vs Houston Dynamo: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
New England Revolutionvs
Houston DynamoThe model puts New England Revolution at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Houston Dynamo.
- +The head-to-head record favours New England Revolution (9-2-4).
- −Houston Dynamo creates more chances (11 vs 14 shots per game).
- +New England Revolution controls more of the ball (51% vs 45%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- New England Revolution have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Houston Dynamo have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- New England Revolution have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings.
- New England Revolution is priced at 2.38.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts New England Revolution at 41%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Houston Dynamo at 37%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. New England Revolution is priced at 2.38. The draw is priced at 3.76. Houston Dynamo is priced at 2.725.
New England Revolution have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. Houston Dynamo have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
New England Revolution have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Houston Dynamo have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Houston Dynamo are on 2 wins in a row.
New England Revolution average 2 goals per game this season. New England Revolution average 51% possession. Houston Dynamo average 2 goals per game this season. Houston Dynamo average 45% possession.
The model gives 71% for both teams to score. The model gives 72% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, New England Revolution or Houston Dynamo?
Our model rates New England Revolution as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for New England Revolution vs Houston Dynamo?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 9 New England Revolution wins, 2 draws, 4 Houston Dynamo wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 38:17 | 34 |
| 2 |  Los Angeles | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 35:19 | 34 |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 37:24 | 33 |
| 4 | Houston Dynamo | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 25:24 | 29 |
| 5 |  Real Salt Lake | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 29:25 | 27 |
| 6 |  Dallas | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32:25 | 27 |
| 7 |  St. Louis City | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24:24 | 26 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 33:33 | 24 |
| 9 |  Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20:22 | 24 |
| 10 |  Minnesota United | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20:25 | 24 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 18 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 27:25 | 22 |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 24:29 | 22 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 32:29 | 21 |
| 14 |  Austin | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 22:36 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 18:46 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.