Houston Dynamo vs Los Angeles Galaxy: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Houston Dynamovs
Los Angeles GalaxyThe model puts Houston Dynamo at 51%. The model leans toward Houston Dynamo. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Los Angeles Galaxy score more per game (1.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Los Angeles Galaxy controls more of the ball (40% vs 50%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Houston Dynamo have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Los Angeles Galaxy have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Houston Dynamo have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Houston Dynamo is priced at 1.755.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Houston Dynamo at 51%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Los Angeles Galaxy at 27%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward Houston Dynamo. Houston Dynamo is priced at 1.755. The draw is priced at 4.24. Los Angeles Galaxy is priced at 4.02.
Houston Dynamo have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Los Angeles Galaxy have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 7 of their head-to-head meetings.
Houston Dynamo have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Los Angeles Galaxy have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Los Angeles Galaxy are on 2 wins in a row.
Houston Dynamo average 1 goals per game this season. Houston Dynamo average 40% possession. Los Angeles Galaxy average 2 goals per game this season. Los Angeles Galaxy average 50% possession.
The model gives 56% for both teams to score. The model gives 58% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Houston Dynamo or Los Angeles Galaxy?
Our model rates Houston Dynamo as the most likely outcome at 51% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Houston Dynamo vs Los Angeles Galaxy?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 4 Houston Dynamo wins, 7 draws, 4 Los Angeles Galaxy wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 38:17 | 34 |
| 2 |  Los Angeles | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 35:19 | 34 |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 37:24 | 33 |
| 4 | Houston Dynamo | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 27:24 | 32 |
| 5 |  Real Salt Lake | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 29:25 | 27 |
| 6 |  Dallas | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32:25 | 27 |
| 7 |  St. Louis City | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24:24 | 26 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 33:33 | 24 |
| 9 |  Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20:22 | 24 |
| 10 |  Minnesota United | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20:25 | 24 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 18 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 27:25 | 22 |
| 12 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 24:29 | 22 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 32:29 | 21 |
| 14 |  Austin | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 22:36 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 18:46 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.