Colorado Rapids vs Sporting Kansas City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Colorado Rapidsvs
Sporting Kansas CityThe model puts Colorado Rapids at 68%. The model leans toward Colorado Rapids. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Colorado Rapids.
- +Colorado Rapids score more per game (3.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +Colorado Rapids creates more chances (15 vs 9 shots per game).
- +Colorado Rapids controls more of the ball (57% vs 44%).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Colorado Rapids have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Colorado Rapids have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Colorado Rapids is priced at 1.475.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 6 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 9 | 8 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Colorado Rapids at 68%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Sporting Kansas City at 15%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-0.
The market leans toward Colorado Rapids. Colorado Rapids is priced at 1.475. The draw is priced at 5. Sporting Kansas City is priced at 5.7.
Colorado Rapids have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Sporting Kansas City have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
Colorado Rapids have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Sporting Kansas City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Colorado Rapids average 3 goals per game this season. Colorado Rapids average 57% possession. Sporting Kansas City average 1 goals per game this season. Sporting Kansas City average 44% possession.
The model gives 55% for both teams to score. The model gives 75% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Colorado Rapids or Sporting Kansas City?
Our model rates Colorado Rapids as the most likely outcome at 68% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Colorado Rapids vs Sporting Kansas City?
A scoreline around 3-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Colorado Rapids wins, 0 draws, 3 Sporting Kansas City wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 38:17 | 34 |
| 2 |  Los Angeles | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 35:19 | 34 |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 37:24 | 33 |
| 4 |  Houston Dynamo | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 27:24 | 32 |
| 5 |  Real Salt Lake | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 29:25 | 27 |
| 6 |  Dallas | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32:25 | 27 |
| 7 |  St. Louis City | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24:24 | 26 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 33:33 | 24 |
| 9 |  Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20:22 | 24 |
| 10 |  Minnesota United | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20:25 | 24 |
| 11 | Colorado Rapids | 18 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 27:25 | 22 |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 24:29 | 22 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 32:29 | 21 |
| 14 |  Austin | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 22:36 | 17 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 18:46 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.