Pumas UNAM vs Queretaro: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Pumas UNAMvs
QueretaroThe model puts Pumas UNAM at 50%. The model leans toward Pumas UNAM. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Pumas UNAM are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Pumas UNAM have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Queretaro have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Pumas UNAM have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Pumas UNAM will be without Cordova, Macias J..
- Queretaro will be without Villanueva C.O..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Pumas UNAM at 50%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Queretaro at 23%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Pumas UNAM. Pumas UNAM is priced at 1.84. The draw is priced at 3.52. Queretaro is priced at 4.09.
Pumas UNAM have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Queretaro have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Pumas UNAM have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Queretaro have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Pumas UNAM or Queretaro?
Our model rates Pumas UNAM as the most likely outcome at 50% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Pumas UNAM vs Queretaro?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Pumas UNAM wins, 4 draws, 5 Queretaro wins.
Match statistics
Pumas UNAM
- 1Navas
- 5Duarte Ru.
- 6da Silva N.A.
- 7Lopez
- 8Carrasquilla
- 18Arteaga
- 21Antuna U.
- 23Juninho Ol.
- 31Morales
- 45Vite
- 77Angulo Mosquera
- Cordova (Questionable)
- Macias J. (Missing Player)
Queretaro
- 2Abascia
- 4Garcia
- 5Homenchenko
- 9Avila
- 11Coronel
- 12Mileo Vidotti
- 13Reyes Di.
- 16Gimenez
- 24Duarte
- 25Allison Revuelta
- 27Parra
- Villanueva C.O. (Missing Player)
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Monterrey | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12:5 | 9 |
| 2 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6:5 | 9 |
| 3 |  Club America | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:1 | 7 |
| 4 |  Deportivo Toluca | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:3 | 7 |
| 5 |  Tijuana | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:1 | 7 |
| 6 | Pumas UNAM | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:5 | 6 |
| 7 |  Cruz Azul | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:6 | 6 |
| 8 | Queretaro | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 9 |  Club Necaxa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:5 | 6 |
| 10 |  Atlante | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:5 | 5 |
| 11 |  Puebla | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 12 |  Guadalajara | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 4 |
| 13 |  Pachuca | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 14 |  Leon | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 15 |  Atletico San Luis | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4:5 | 2 |
| 16 |  Tigres de la UANL | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6:10 | 1 |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 18 |  Juarez | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2:13 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.