Atlante vs Deportivo Toluca: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Atlantevs
Deportivo TolucaThe model puts Deportivo Toluca at 62%. The model leans toward Deportivo Toluca. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Deportivo Toluca.
- +The head-to-head record favours Deportivo Toluca (2-2-8).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Atlante have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Deportivo Toluca have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atlante have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Deportivo Toluca is priced at 1.57.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | |||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Atlante at 17%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Deportivo Toluca at 62%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Deportivo Toluca. Atlante is priced at 5.18. The draw is priced at 4.1. Deportivo Toluca is priced at 1.57.
Atlante have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Deportivo Toluca have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Atlante have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Deportivo Toluca have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 44% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Atlante or Deportivo Toluca?
Our model rates Deportivo Toluca as the most likely outcome at 62% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Atlante vs Deportivo Toluca?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 12 meetings: 2 Atlante wins, 2 draws, 8 Deportivo Toluca wins.
Match statistics
Atlante
- 1Jimenez O.
- 4Tercero Mendez
- 6Carrera
- 7Palacios
- 8Pizzuto
- 9Puente
- 10Vasquez
- 19Calzadilla
- 29Portales
- 34Jimenez
- 44Quiros Ha.
Deportivo Toluca
- 2Barboza
- 4Mendes B.
- 5Romero
- 6Pereira
- 10Angulo
- 16Vinas F.
- 17Garcia Bri.
- 22Garcia
- 25Del Villar
- 29Diaz Price J.R.
- 35Gutierrez
- Ruiz M. (Missing Player)
- Castro (Missing Player)
- Dias Fernandes (Missing Player)
Match story
How the game unfoldedNo goals but plenty of bite: 1 card(s) in this spell. Score holds at 0–0.
A controlled first-half spell with few clear chances. (0–0)
Half-time score: Atlante 0 – 0 Deportivo Toluca.
The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (0–0)
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (0–0)
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:1 | 7 |
| 2 |  Tijuana | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:1 | 7 |
| 3 | Deportivo Toluca | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6:3 | 6 |
| 4 |  Pumas UNAM | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:5 | 6 |
| 5 |  Monterrey | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6:4 | 6 |
| 6 |  Cruz Azul | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:6 | 6 |
| 7 |  Queretaro | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 8 |  Club Necaxa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:5 | 6 |
| 9 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:4 | 6 |
| 10 | Atlante | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:5 | 4 |
| 11 |  Puebla | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 12 |  Guadalajara | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 4 |
| 13 |  Pachuca | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 14 |  Leon | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 15 |  Atletico San Luis | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4:5 | 2 |
| 16 |  Tigres de la UANL | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5:8 | 1 |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 18 |  Juarez | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1:7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.