Lyngby vs AGF Aarhus: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Lyngbyvs
AGF AarhusThe model puts AGF Aarhus at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Lyngby.
- −The head-to-head record favours Lyngby (5-1-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Lyngby have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AGF Aarhus have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lyngby have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- AGF Aarhus is priced at 2.05.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Lyngby at 34%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts AGF Aarhus at 43%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward AGF Aarhus. Lyngby is priced at 3.24. The draw is priced at 3.7. AGF Aarhus is priced at 2.05.
Lyngby have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Lyngby have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. AGF Aarhus have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Lyngby or AGF Aarhus?
Our model rates AGF Aarhus as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Lyngby vs AGF Aarhus?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 5 Lyngby wins, 1 draws, 0 AGF Aarhus wins.
League table
Denmark. Superliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Copenhagen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 2 |  Midtjylland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 3 |  Viborg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Silkeborg | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 5 | AGF Aarhus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 6 |  Brondby | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 7 |  Horsens | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 8 |  Nordsjaelland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 9 |  Randers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 10 |  SonderjyskE | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 11 | Lyngby | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 12 |  Odense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.