Real Salt Lake vs Minnesota United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Real Salt Lakevs
Minnesota UnitedThe model puts Real Salt Lake at 59%. The model leans toward Real Salt Lake. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Real Salt Lake.
- +The head-to-head record favours Real Salt Lake (4-2-0).
- +Real Salt Lake creates more chances (17 vs 12 shots per game).
- +Real Salt Lake controls more of the ball (50% vs 44%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Real Salt Lake have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Minnesota United have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Real Salt Lake have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Real Salt Lake is priced at 1.752.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Real Salt Lake at 59%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Minnesota United at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward Real Salt Lake. Real Salt Lake is priced at 1.752. The draw is priced at 4.24. Minnesota United is priced at 4.04.
Real Salt Lake have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Real Salt Lake have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Minnesota United have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Real Salt Lake average 2 goals per game this season. Real Salt Lake average 50% possession. Minnesota United average 2 goals per game this season. Minnesota United average 44% possession.
The model gives 62% for both teams to score. The model gives 73% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Real Salt Lake or Minnesota United?
Our model rates Real Salt Lake as the most likely outcome at 59% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Real Salt Lake vs Minnesota United?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 Real Salt Lake wins, 2 draws, 0 Minnesota United wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 38:17 | 34 |
| 2 |  Los Angeles | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 35:19 | 34 |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 37:24 | 33 |
| 4 |  Houston Dynamo | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 27:24 | 32 |
| 5 | Real Salt Lake | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 29:25 | 27 |
| 6 |  Dallas | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32:25 | 27 |
| 7 |  St. Louis City | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24:24 | 26 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 33:33 | 24 |
| 9 |  Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20:22 | 24 |
| 10 | Minnesota United | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20:25 | 24 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 18 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 27:25 | 22 |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 24:29 | 22 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 32:29 | 21 |
| 14 |  Austin | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 22:36 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 18:46 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.