Austin vs Dallas: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Austinvs
DallasThe model puts Dallas at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Austin.
- +Dallas score more per game (1.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- −The head-to-head record favours Austin (9-2-3).
- −Austin controls more of the ball (55% vs 42%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Austin have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Dallas have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Austin have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Dallas is priced at 2.29.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Austin at 39%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Dallas at 40%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market frames this as a close contest. Austin is priced at 2.76. The draw is priced at 3.94. Dallas is priced at 2.29.
Austin have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. Dallas have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Austin have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Dallas have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Austin average 1 goals per game this season. Austin average 55% possession. Dallas average 2 goals per game this season. Dallas average 42% possession.
The model gives 60% for both teams to score. The model gives 57% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Austin or Dallas?
Our model rates Dallas as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Austin vs Dallas?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 14 meetings: 9 Austin wins, 2 draws, 3 Dallas wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 38:17 | 34 |
| 2 |  Los Angeles | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 35:19 | 34 |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 37:24 | 33 |
| 4 |  Houston Dynamo | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 27:24 | 32 |
| 5 |  Real Salt Lake | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 29:25 | 27 |
| 6 | Dallas | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32:25 | 27 |
| 7 |  St. Louis City | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24:24 | 26 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 33:33 | 24 |
| 9 |  Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20:22 | 24 |
| 10 |  Minnesota United | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20:25 | 24 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 18 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 27:25 | 22 |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 24:29 | 22 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 32:29 | 21 |
| 14 | Austin | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 22:36 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 18:46 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.