Seattle Sounders vs Vancouver Whitecaps: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Seattle Soundersvs
Vancouver WhitecapsThe model puts Vancouver Whitecaps at 47%. The model leans toward Vancouver Whitecaps. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Seattle Sounders.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Seattle Sounders have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Vancouver Whitecaps have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Vancouver Whitecaps is priced at 1.92.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Seattle Sounders at 30%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Vancouver Whitecaps at 47%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Vancouver Whitecaps. Seattle Sounders is priced at 3.44. The draw is priced at 4.12. Vancouver Whitecaps is priced at 1.92.
Seattle Sounders have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Vancouver Whitecaps have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Seattle Sounders have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Vancouver Whitecaps have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Seattle Sounders average 2 goals per game this season. Seattle Sounders average 52% possession. Vancouver Whitecaps average 2 goals per game this season. Vancouver Whitecaps average 55% possession.
The model gives 70% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Seattle Sounders or Vancouver Whitecaps?
Our model rates Vancouver Whitecaps as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Seattle Sounders vs Vancouver Whitecaps?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Seattle Sounders wins, 5 draws, 4 Vancouver Whitecaps wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 38:17 | 34 |
| 2 |  Los Angeles | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 35:19 | 34 |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 37:24 | 33 |
| 4 |  Houston Dynamo | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 27:24 | 32 |
| 5 |  Real Salt Lake | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 29:25 | 27 |
| 6 |  Dallas | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32:25 | 27 |
| 7 |  St. Louis City | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24:24 | 26 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 33:33 | 24 |
| 9 | Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20:22 | 24 |
| 10 |  Minnesota United | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20:25 | 24 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 18 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 27:25 | 22 |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 24:29 | 22 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 32:29 | 21 |
| 14 |  Austin | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 22:36 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 18:46 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.