Los Angeles vs San Diego: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Los Angelesvs
San DiegoThe model puts Los Angeles at 61%. The model leans toward Los Angeles. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Los Angeles.
- +Los Angeles score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +Los Angeles creates more chances (14 vs 10 shots per game).
- −San Diego controls more of the ball (47% vs 62%).
- +The head-to-head record favours Los Angeles (2-1-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Los Angeles have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- San Diego have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Los Angeles have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Los Angeles is priced at 1.56.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Los Angeles at 61%. The model puts the draw at 17%. The model puts San Diego at 22%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Los Angeles. Los Angeles is priced at 1.56. The draw is priced at 4.8. San Diego is priced at 4.9.
Los Angeles have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Los Angeles have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. San Diego have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Los Angeles average 2 goals per game this season. Los Angeles average 47% possession. San Diego average 1 goals per game this season. San Diego average 62% possession.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 61% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Los Angeles or San Diego?
Our model rates Los Angeles as the most likely outcome at 61% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Los Angeles vs San Diego?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 2 Los Angeles wins, 1 draws, 0 San Diego wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 38:17 | 34 |
| 2 | Los Angeles | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 35:19 | 34 |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 37:24 | 33 |
| 4 |  Houston Dynamo | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 27:24 | 32 |
| 5 |  Real Salt Lake | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 29:25 | 27 |
| 6 |  Dallas | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32:25 | 27 |
| 7 |  St. Louis City | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24:24 | 26 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 33:33 | 24 |
| 9 |  Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20:22 | 24 |
| 10 |  Minnesota United | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20:25 | 24 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 18 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 27:25 | 22 |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 24:29 | 22 |
| 13 | San Diego | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 32:29 | 21 |
| 14 |  Austin | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 22:36 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 18:46 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.