Charlotte vs Columbus Crew: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Charlottevs
Columbus CrewThe model puts Charlotte at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Charlotte creates more chances (13 vs 11 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Columbus Crew controls more of the ball (49% vs 56%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Charlotte have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Columbus Crew have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Charlotte have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Charlotte is priced at 2.23.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Charlotte at 43%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Columbus Crew at 33%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Charlotte is priced at 2.23. The draw is priced at 3.9. Columbus Crew is priced at 2.87.
Charlotte have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Columbus Crew have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Charlotte have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Charlotte are on 2 wins in a row. Columbus Crew have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Columbus Crew are on 2 wins in a row.
Charlotte average 2 goals per game this season. Charlotte average 49% possession. Columbus Crew average 2 goals per game this season. Columbus Crew average 56% possession.
The model gives 70% for both teams to score. The model gives 72% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Charlotte or Columbus Crew?
Our model rates Charlotte as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Charlotte vs Columbus Crew?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 9 meetings: 3 Charlotte wins, 4 draws, 2 Columbus Crew wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 38:17 | 34 |
| 2 |  Los Angeles | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 35:19 | 34 |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 37:24 | 33 |
| 4 |  Houston Dynamo | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 25:24 | 29 |
| 5 |  Real Salt Lake | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 29:25 | 27 |
| 6 |  Dallas | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32:25 | 27 |
| 7 |  St. Louis City | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24:24 | 26 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 33:33 | 24 |
| 9 |  Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20:22 | 24 |
| 10 |  Minnesota United | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20:25 | 24 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 18 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 27:25 | 22 |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 24:29 | 22 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 32:29 | 21 |
| 14 |  Austin | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 22:36 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 18:46 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.