Thun vs Young Boys: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Thunvs
Young BoysThe model puts Young Boys at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Young Boys.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Thun have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Young Boys have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Thun have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Young Boys is priced at 2.41.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Thun at 36%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Young Boys at 40%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Thun is priced at 2.51. The draw is priced at 3.86. Young Boys is priced at 2.41.
Thun have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Young Boys have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
Thun have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Young Boys have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Young Boys are on 4 wins in a row.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Thun or Young Boys?
Our model rates Young Boys as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Thun vs Young Boys?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Thun wins, 0 draws, 3 Young Boys wins.
League table
Switzerland. SuperLeague| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Boys | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:2 | 3 |
| 2 | Thun | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Lugano | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 4 |  St. Gallen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 5 |  Basel | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  Lausanne-Sport | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 7 |  Grasshopper Club Zurich | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 8 |  Zurich | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 9 |  Vaduz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 10 |  Servette | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 11 |  Sion | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
| 12 |  Luzern | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.