Ilpar vs Metallurg Asha: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Ilparvs
Metallurg AshaThe model puts Ilpar at 37%. Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty. Confidence: low.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Ilpar is priced at 2.47.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Ilpar at 37%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Metallurg Asha at 36%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Ilpar is priced at 2.47. The draw is priced at 3.32. Metallurg Asha is priced at 2.47.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Ilpar or Metallurg Asha?
Our model rates Ilpar as the most likely outcome at 37% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Ilpar vs Metallurg Asha?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.