Kirovets Voshozhdenie vs Tosno: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Kirovets Voshozhdenievs
TosnoThe model puts Tosno at 50%. The model leans toward Tosno. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Kirovets Voshozhdenie.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Kirovets Voshozhdenie have 3 wins in their last 3 matches.
- Tosno have 3 wins in their last 4 matches.
- Tosno is priced at 1.76.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Kirovets Voshozhdenie at 25%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Tosno at 50%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Tosno. Kirovets Voshozhdenie is priced at 4.17. The draw is priced at 3.44. Tosno is priced at 1.76.
Kirovets Voshozhdenie have 3 wins in their last 3 matches. Kirovets Voshozhdenie are on 3 wins in a row. Tosno have 3 wins in their last 4 matches. Tosno are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 67% for both teams to score. The model gives 70% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Kirovets Voshozhdenie or Tosno?
Our model rates Tosno as the most likely outcome at 50% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Kirovets Voshozhdenie vs Tosno?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.