Zenit Saint Petersburg vs Rodina Moscow: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Zenit Saint Petersburgvs
Rodina MoscowThe model puts Zenit Saint Petersburg at 86%. The model leans toward Zenit Saint Petersburg. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Zenit Saint Petersburg.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Zenit Saint Petersburg have 4 wins in their last 4 matches.
- Rodina Moscow have 1 wins in their last 3 matches.
- Rodina Moscow will be without Sokol Ar..
- Zenit Saint Petersburg is priced at 1.12.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | |||||
| 1 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| 2 | 12 | 4 | ||||
| 3 | 15 | 5 | ||||
| 4 | 14 | 5 | ||||
| 5 | 10 | 3 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Zenit Saint Petersburg at 86%. The model puts the draw at 10%. The model puts Rodina Moscow at 4%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-0.
The market leans toward Zenit Saint Petersburg. Zenit Saint Petersburg is priced at 1.12. The draw is priced at 9. Rodina Moscow is priced at 21.
Zenit Saint Petersburg have 4 wins in their last 4 matches. Zenit Saint Petersburg are on 4 wins in a row. Rodina Moscow have 1 wins in their last 3 matches.
The model gives 28% for both teams to score. The model gives 76% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Zenit Saint Petersburg or Rodina Moscow?
Our model rates Zenit Saint Petersburg as the most likely outcome at 86% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Zenit Saint Petersburg vs Rodina Moscow?
A scoreline around 3-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Russia. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit Saint Petersburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:0 | 6 |
| 2 |  Spartak Moscow | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 3 |  Krasnodar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:3 | 6 |
| 4 |  Dynamo Makhachkala | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:2 | 6 |
| 5 |  CSKA Moscow | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 4 |
| 6 |  Orenburg | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:4 | 3 |
| 7 |  Baltika Kaliningrad | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 8 |  Rubin Kazan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 9 |  Rostov | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:4 | 3 |
| 10 |  Krylia Sovetov | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:1 | 2 |
| 11 |  Lokomotiv Moscow | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 12 |  Akhmat | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 13 |  Dynamo Moscow | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 14 |  Fakel Voronezh | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3:5 | 0 |
| 15 | Rodina Moscow | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 16 |  Akron Tolyatti | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.