Spartak Moscow vs Krasnodar: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Spartak Moscowvs
KrasnodarThe model puts Spartak Moscow at 45%. The model leans toward Spartak Moscow. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Spartak Moscow have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Krasnodar have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Spartak Moscow have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Spartak Moscow will be without Зорин.
- Krasnodar will be without Cordoba J..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Spartak Moscow at 45%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Krasnodar at 28%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Spartak Moscow. Spartak Moscow is priced at 2.1. The draw is priced at 3.6. Krasnodar is priced at 3.34.
Spartak Moscow have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Krasnodar have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
Spartak Moscow have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Spartak Moscow are on 3 wins in a row. Krasnodar have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Krasnodar are on 3 wins in a row.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Spartak Moscow or Krasnodar?
Our model rates Spartak Moscow as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Spartak Moscow vs Krasnodar?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Spartak Moscow wins, 0 draws, 7 Krasnodar wins.
Odds movement
League table
Russia. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Zenit Saint Petersburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:0 | 6 |
| 2 | Spartak Moscow | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 3 | Krasnodar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:3 | 6 |
| 4 |  Dynamo Makhachkala | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:2 | 6 |
| 5 |  CSKA Moscow | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 4 |
| 6 |  Orenburg | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:4 | 3 |
| 7 |  Baltika Kaliningrad | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 8 |  Rubin Kazan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 9 |  Rostov | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:4 | 3 |
| 10 |  Krylia Sovetov | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:1 | 2 |
| 11 |  Lokomotiv Moscow | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 12 |  Akhmat | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 13 |  Dynamo Moscow | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 14 |  Fakel Voronezh | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3:5 | 0 |
| 15 |  Rodina Moscow | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 16 |  Akron Tolyatti | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.