Rubin Kazan vs Orenburg: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Rubin Kazanvs
OrenburgThe model puts Rubin Kazan at 49%. The model leans toward Rubin Kazan. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Rubin Kazan are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Rubin Kazan have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Orenburg have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Rubin Kazan have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Rubin Kazan will be without Drezgic, Gritsaenko.
- Rubin Kazan is priced at 1.9.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Rubin Kazan at 49%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Orenburg at 23%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Rubin Kazan. Rubin Kazan is priced at 1.9. The draw is priced at 3.44. Orenburg is priced at 4.24.
Rubin Kazan have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Orenburg have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Rubin Kazan have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Orenburg have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Rubin Kazan or Orenburg?
Our model rates Rubin Kazan as the most likely outcome at 49% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Rubin Kazan vs Orenburg?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 Rubin Kazan wins, 3 draws, 5 Orenburg wins.
Odds movement
League table
Russia. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Zenit Saint Petersburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:0 | 6 |
| 2 |  Spartak Moscow | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 3 |  Krasnodar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:3 | 6 |
| 4 |  Dynamo Makhachkala | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:2 | 6 |
| 5 |  CSKA Moscow | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 4 |
| 6 | Orenburg | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:4 | 3 |
| 7 |  Baltika Kaliningrad | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 8 | Rubin Kazan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 9 |  Rostov | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:4 | 3 |
| 10 |  Krylia Sovetov | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:1 | 2 |
| 11 |  Lokomotiv Moscow | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 12 |  Akhmat | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 13 |  Dynamo Moscow | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 14 |  Fakel Voronezh | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3:5 | 0 |
| 15 |  Rodina Moscow | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 16 |  Akron Tolyatti | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.